menu
 
Economics Invasion of Ukraine Commentary

Global Macro Outlook - Second Quarter 2022

2022年3月30日
2 min read

What You Need to Know

The war in Ukraine won’t impact every country the same, but it will be felt disproportionately in Europe and in those emerging markets with exposure to Russia and Ukraine. The outlook is less grim beyond Eastern Europe, though knock-on effects of the conflict will persist.

Download PDF

Key Forecast Trends

  • The magnitude of the war’s impact on growth and inflation will be determined by how much and for how long energy prices rise.
  • The war, economic sanctions and the associated rise in energy costs are likely to exacerbate global shipping impediments, too, which had begun to recover from the pandemic.
  • We expect most central banks to continue tightening monetary policy, even as consumers face a hit to real incomes from rising energy prices.
  • Perspective is important: the reopening from COVID-19 pushed global economic growth well above long-term trends, and US households in particular now have a reservoir of savings that will allow them to smooth consumption through trying times.
The Global Cycle for 2Q:2022
The Global Cycle for 2Q:2022

Forecast Overview

Key Assumptions
 

  • Geopolitical: The war in Ukraine is likely to keep commodity prices elevated for some time to come.
  • COVID-19: Caseloads may rise, but we do not expect widespread economic disruption.
  • Fiscal policy: European fiscal policy may mitigate some downside risk from the war.
  • Monetary policy: Rates will move higher and faster than previously anticipated.

Central Narrative
 

  • Global growth: Challenged consumers have to allocate more money to commodity-based essential goods.
  • Inflation: Rising commodity prices will push inflation higher and keep it there for longer.
  • Yields: Tighter monetary policy will push yields up and flatten yield curves.
  • USD: Stronger for now, as the Fed pulls ahead of other central banks in policy tightening.

Key Assumptions
 

  • A timely resolution to the Ukraine war could provide relief through lower commodity prices.
  • Fiscal authorities could provide significant relief to consumers struggling with higher energy prices.

Key Downside Risks
 

  • A protracted military conflict could dampen sentiment throughout Europe and beyond.
  • Inflation expectations could de-anchor, forcing very aggressive monetary-policy tightening.

Past performance, historical and current analyses, and expectations do not guarantee future results. There can be no assurance that any investment objectives will be achieved. The information contained here reflects the views of AllianceBernstein L.P. or its affiliates and sources it believes are reliable as of the date of this publication. AllianceBernstein L.P. makes no representations or warranties concerning the accuracy of any data. There is no guarantee that any projection, forecast or opinion in this material will be realized. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The views expressed here may change at any time after the date of this publication. This document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. AllianceBernstein L.P. does not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. It does not take an investor’s personal investment objectives or financial situation into account; investors should discuss their individual circumstances with appropriate professionals before making any decisions. This information should not be construed as sales or marketing material or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument, product or service sponsored by AB or its affiliates.

The views expressed herein do not constitute research, investment advice, or trade recommendations and do not necessarily represent the views of all AB portfolio-management teams.

MSCI makes no express or implied warranties or representations, and shall have no liability whatsoever with respect to any MSCI data contained herein. The MSCI data may not be further redistributed or used as a basis for other indices or any securities or financial products. This report is not approved, reviewed or produced by MSCI.

Investment involves risk. The information contained here reflects the views of AllianceBernstein L.P. or its affiliates and sources it believes are reliable as of the date of this publication. AllianceBernstein L.P. makes no representations or warranties concerning the accuracy of any data. There is no guarantee that any projection, forecast or opinion in this material will be realized. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The views expressed here may change at any time after the date of this publication. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. AllianceBernstein L.P. does not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. It does not take an investor's personal investment objectives or financial situation into account; investors should discuss their individual circumstances with appropriate professionals before making any decisions. This information should not be construed as sales or marketing material or an offer of solicitation for the purchase or sale of, any financial instrument, product or service sponsored by AllianceBernstein or its affiliates. This presentation is issued by AllianceBernstein Hong Kong Limited (聯博香港有限公司) and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission.

投資涉及風險。以往表現並非未來業績的保證。

聯博香港有限公司(AllianceBernstein Hong Kong Limited)是 AllianceBernstein 的香港代表，代理其盧森堡註冊的離岸基金；有關基金已獲證監會 (SFC) 認可於香港銷售。聯博香港有限公司也是聯博（香港）單位信託基金系列及其子基金的投資管理人；系列依香港法律規定之開放式單位信託基金以傘型單位信託基金方式所建立。欲查詢一般資料或認購詳情，請致電2918 7888。

證監會認可並不等同推薦或認許本傘子基金或其子基金，亦不保證本傘子基金或任何子基金的商業素質或表現。這並不意味本傘子基金或其子基金適合所有投資者，或認許其適合任何特定投資者或類別投資者。

此網站並未經證監會審閱。

此網站的發行者為聯博香港有限公司(AllianceBernstein Hong Kong Limited)。

© AllianceBernstein L.P.