Lessons from Equity Investing with a Very Long Lens on Growth

07 August 2024
3 min read

Four interlinked principles form a compelling investment philosophy for uncovering promising growth companies.

Equity investing is a learning process, in which portfolio teams must be highly disciplined yet always open to evolving. Here are some lessons that we’ve learned from investing in European and global growth stocks over the last two decades.

Remember What Really Drives Long-Term Returns

Earnings and cash-flow growth are the basic sources of long-term equity investment returns.

It may sound like a truism, but this simple principle is often forgotten in volatile markets. Over time, the performance of the MSCI Europe Index has closely tracked the earnings growth of its constituent companies (Display). And the MSCI Europe Growth Index, whose members have higher growth than the broad market index, has delivered even better returns. This suggests that investors who are able to identify companies with stronger earnings growth than the market tend to be rewarded with outperformance. 

Equity Market Returns Have Closely Tracked Long-Term Earnings Growth
Bar chart shows the annualized predicted long-term earnings growth, realized earnings growth and equity market return for the MSCI Europe and MSCI Europe Growth indices, from 2004 to 2023.

Past performance and current analysis do not guarantee future results.
EPS is earnings per share. Predicted long-term EPS growth is based on analyst estimates for the long-term earnings growth rate. Realized earnings growth is the five-year EPS growth rate before extraordinary items.
As of December 31, 2023
Source: MSCI and AllianceBernstein (AB)

To do this, we believe cash flows should be prioritized in fundamental analysis. That’s because cash flows are the lifeblood of a healthy business and underpin a company’s ability to sustain earnings growth over time. Even when macroeconomic challenges and geopolitical hazards rattle market performance, equity returns over time are ultimately driven by a company’s underlying earnings trajectory.

Look Far into the Future

As active equity investors, we think a minimum five-to-10-year time horizon is optimal.

That may sound like an especially long time to project an investment’s future. However, we think this approach creates advantages for investors. It requires us to zoom in on business dynamics, which provide greater visibility of a firm’s earnings trajectory, no matter how volatile the surrounding environment may be. In a world of ever shorter attention spans, those with a very long view can benefit from what we call time arbitrage. That is, when a company’s shares are unfairly punished by the market because of short-term uncertainty, we can strengthen positions and adjust holdings with conviction in the long-term earnings outlook.

Think Like a Business Owner

Equity investors often buy a stock with a future sell date in mind. Business owners don’t do that.

Owners purchase a business to develop it, without a specified end date for engagement. With a business-owner mindset, investors will focus on operational attributes, such as the competitive moat around a company’s products and services or the corporate culture, and how they help support the sustainability of earnings.

This provides a very different perspective in which the fundamental business health is the highest priority. It can help investors filter out market noise that may distract investors from the essence of earnings success. And it can lead investors to companies in sectors and industries that aren’t always associated with growth potential, such as European industrials.

A business-owner approach can lead to even longer holding periods than our typical five to 10 years. In fact, select successful businesses may even deserve to be held in an equity portfolio for 15 or 20 years, which provides an added potential bonus of the compounding effect on returns. 

Short-Term Volatility Brings Long-Term Opportunity

Equity investors with a strategic long-term view can take advantage of short-term volatility to bolster positions in stocks that are likely to recover over time.

Market volatility is a fact of life, and even the best managers will suffer a very bad quarter or year at some point. Of course, downturns and periods of underperformance can be unsettling. But before jumping to conclusions, ask why the portfolio has underperformed. If the portfolio team is disciplined in implementing its stated strategy and philosophy, don’t write it off. It’s far more concerning when portfolio managers chase crowds and fads with little strategic rationale.

Clients who develop a close relationship with portfolio management teams become partners through the ups and downs of market cycles; it’s easier for them to give a vote of confidence to a strategy during a rough patch. They’ll understand that periods of weakness don’t undermine an actively managed strategy. Good active managers will stick to their knitting through volatile periods and emerge with even stronger performance over a multiyear horizon.

The lessons that we’ve accumulated over the years are interconnected. When you understand the drivers of long-term returns, it makes sense to develop a five-to-10-year outlook. To gain confidence looking so far into the future requires the mindset of a business owner. And with that mentality, it becomes much easier to weather bouts of turbulence. Taken together, we believe these concepts can guide a portfolio to meet investors’ long-term financial goals with a compelling strategic investing philosophy. 

The views expressed herein do not constitute research, investment advice or trade recommendations and do not necessarily represent the views of all AB portfolio-management teams. Views are subject to revision over time.

Investment involves risk. The information contained here reflects the views of AllianceBernstein L.P. or its affiliates and sources it believes are reliable as of the date of this publication. AllianceBernstein L.P. makes no representations or warranties concerning the accuracy of any data. There is no guarantee that any projection, forecast or opinion in this material will be realized. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The views expressed here may change at any time after the date of this publication. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. AllianceBernstein L.P. does not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. It does not take an investor's personal investment objectives or financial situation into account; investors should discuss their individual circumstances with appropriate professionals before making any decisions. This information should not be construed as sales or marketing material or an offer of solicitation for the purchase or sale of, any financial instrument, product or service sponsored by AllianceBernstein or its affiliates. This presentation is issued by AllianceBernstein Hong Kong Limited (聯博香港有限公司) and has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission.


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